現時，除了美國區域性銀行外，銀行業整體基本因素是數十年來最強。
不過，發債量龐大、美國區域性銀行危機的持續憂慮，以及宏觀經濟的不明朗因素，均意味著銀行業相對廣泛企業債券市場的息差寬闊。這會否帶來機遇？
2024年2月7日
銀行業債券目前息差高於投資級信貸
銀行業全球綜合企業債券與全球綜合企業債券的期權調整後息差比較
過往業績並非將來業績的保證。OAS：期權調整後息差。
資料來源：彭博。數據截至2023年12月31日
最近數月，市場論調已轉向預期政策利率現已見頂，並將隨著央行實現經濟軟著陸而迅速下降。銀行業在此情境下穩佔優勢，不少銀行均採取利率對沖以保障收入。
鑑於市場通常將銀行業表現視為宏觀經濟的指標，衰退風險降低應會令銀行業再次受到支持。
此外，美國區域性銀行危機帶來監管變動，可能在未來數年使美國銀行業發債量維持於較高水平。然而，有關變化促使銀行業加強資本狀況，長遠而言應有利債券持有人。同時，銀行業再度關注存款基礎的質素及穩定性。
在本文中，資本集團的固定收益分析員概述不斷變化的宏觀經濟環境對銀行業的潛在影響、美國區域性銀行危機的影響、監管變動的信貸影響，以及銀行業的主要機遇及風險。
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Etrit Vllasalija is a fixed income investment analyst at Capital Group with research responsibility for IG European banks and aircraft leasing. He has nine years of investment industry experience and has been with Capital Group for six years. Earlier in his career at Capital, Etrit was a research associate. Prior to joining Capital, Etrit worked as an equity research analyst at Société Générale. He holds a master's degree from Jonkoping International Business School and a master's degree in finance from the Lund University School of Economics and Management. Etrit is based in London.
Franz Lathuillerie is a fixed income investment analyst at Capital Group with research responsibility for Asian financials in fixed income. He has 21 years of investment industry experience and has been with Capital Group for five years. Prior to joining Capital, Franz was CFO at AXA in Thailand and Indonesia. He holds an MBA from ESSEC Business School. He also holds the Chartered Global Management Accountant® designation and is a fellow of the Institute of Actuaries. Franz is based in Singapore.
Michael Habib is a fixed income investment analyst with nine years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/2022). He holds an MBA from University of Chicago and a bachelor's degree from University of Western Ontario.
