What’s distant may be significant
I developed strong peripheral vision in the early years of my career when I was an equity investment analyst covering newspapers, digital imaging and the internet. In those days, newspapers were these incredible businesses. Warren Buffett famously bought two. They were local monopolies that didn't face serious competitive threats from other newspapers or magazines. But their economics were upended by the advance of online advertising through such businesses as Craigslist, eBay, Zillow and monster.com, an old job posting site.
People in the newspaper industry never saw this coming. Another example is Xerox, a great company that was once one of the Nifty Fifty stocks. More than anything else, I think the iPad really made that company struggle, because with the iPad you could bring all your papers to a meeting. You didn't have to print them out anymore.
The Yellow Pages were to a large degree disrupted by Google and Yelp. Cable television networks, of course, have been hurt by the advance of streaming services. But when Netflix launched and first started mailing DVDs to people's houses, I didn't think, "You know what? That's going to gut the economics of the cable networks and change that whole industry," but that's exactly what happened.
So, I learned to pay close attention to seemingly insignificant developments on the horizon and take them seriously. Now all the examples I have given were businesses disrupted by digital innovation. Rather than just relying on peripheral vision to identify threatened businesses, at some point I began to ask, "What will do well because of these digital trends?"
As a portfolio manager for CGGR Capital Group Growth ETF and The Growth Fund of America®, I have largely built my portfolios around that question. This has led me to invest in a number of digital trends — trends I expect will transform industries for years to come. Today, fewer people are watching cable TV by appointment and more often are streaming content through Netflix or Hulu. With respect to currency, people are using coins and paper money less, and I expect that digital money will take a greater share of all payments. Another example is on-premises computing, where companies like Capital Group run their data centers on their own servers, which is giving way to cloud computing. This is a potentially huge trend.