Capital IdeasTM
Investment insights from Capital Group
株式
Marc Nabi
Maria Karahalis
David Polak
The dominance of megacap tech stocks has prompted debate around how much higher equity markets can go, especially in the US.
In our view, even accounting for the recent climb in stocks, overall valuations do not appear to be stretched. Global corporate earnings have bounced back from a near trough and are expected to improve further from here. Moreover, moderating inflation and declining interest rates could create a highly favourable backdrop.
Corporate earnings set to rebound
Estimated annual earnings growth
Estimates as at 31 December 2023. The chart shows estimated earnings growth for each region. Estimated annual earnings growth is represented by the mean consensus earnings per share estimates for the years ending December 2023, December 2024 and December 2025. U.S. = S&P 500 Index. Europe = MSCI Europe Index. Japan = MSCI Japan Index. Emerging markets = MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Sources: Capital Group, FactSet, MSCI, Standard & Poor's
While we may see some volatility related to earnings, elections, the pace of interest rate cuts, or geopolitical events, we believe that equities are in a sweet spot.
As earnings growth recovers in non-tech sectors, we could see a more diverse set of companies garner investor attention. Meanwhile, companies in the S&P 500 Index excluding financials are holding cash at levels that are near 10-year highs which could fuel stock buybacks, M&A activity or dividend payments.
過去の実績は将来の成果を保証するものではありません。投資の価値および投資収益は減少することも増加することもあり、当初投資額の一部または全部を失うことがあります。本情報は投資、税務もしくはその他の助言の提供、または証券の売買の勧誘を意図するものではありません。
個人に帰属する記述は、その個人の出版日現在の意見を述べたものであり、必ずしもキャピタル・グループまたはその関連会社の意見を反映したものではありません。特に明記がない限り、すべての情報は記載された日付現在のものです。一部の情報は第三者から取得したものであり、そのため、かかる情報の信頼性については保証いたしません。