Capital IdeasTM
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Trade
Bobby Esnard
Chau Nguyen
After several decades of rising globalisation and the world becoming increasingly interconnected, that trend plateaued in the post-financial crisis period – and there are signs of it going into reverse.
Whether we call this de-globalisation, or borrow the International Monetary Fund’s ‘slowbalisation’ term, the pandemic has clearly laid bare a shifting backdrop for global trade. This paper examines three core factors − geopolitical fragmentation, the need for supply chain resilience and competition for scarce resources – that are driving this de-globalisation through four channels: production and trade, foreign investment, financial friction and technological restrictions.
Top Foreign Direct Investment recipients over recent decades
Source: United Nations Conference on Trade and Development FDI database, CEIC for Mexico and India’s FDI origin data. How to read the chart: For example, the US has been the #1 recipient of global FDI flow in the past five decades. China has elevated from 16th place to 2nd
Production and trade − with recent China Plus One supply chain movements – has received the most spotlight so far but it is equally important to look at the other channels for a glimpse of what the future might hold.
What this revealed is that while trade can potentially evolve as production shifts, no one country can currently match China’s breadth of advantages, despite growing noise around certain contenders.
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