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Markets & Economy
2022 Outlook
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Long-term perspective on markets and economies


Expect strong but slowing economic growth in 2022


The global economy should enjoy solid growth in 2022, according to Capital Group economists. But clear risks lie ahead, including the gradual reduction of stimulus from central banks, stubborn inflation, a slowing China and the emergence of COVID variants.


“Despite the risks, we are optimistic about an environment ideally suited to selective investing grounded in bottom-up, fundamental research.” - Rob Lovelace

U.S. OUTLOOK


U.S. economy is healthy, but inflation persists


The American economy should remain healthy in 2022 thanks to strong corporate profits and robust consumer spending, but inflation pressures and other headwinds will likely temper growth.


The image shows the average annual returns for U.S. equity and fixed income at different inflation levels from 1970 to 2021. Returns for each level of inflation are as follows. For inflation below 0%: U.S. equity –6.5% and U.S. fixed income 6.8%. For 0%–2% inflation: U.S. equity 11.7% and U.S. fixed income 5.0%. For 2%–3% inflation: U.S. equity 14.2% and U.S. fixed income 4.2%. For 3%–4% inflation: U.S. equity 10.8% and U.S. fixed income 6.6%. For 4%–6% inflation: U.S. equity 8.6% and U.S. fixed income 4.3%. For 6% inflation or above: U.S. equity –3.7% and U.S. fixed income –4.3%.

Pricing power can help companies fight inflation


Stocks and bonds have generally fared well in most inflationary environments. One strategy to consider is investing in companies with pricing power to help minimize inflation’s impact on investment returns.


INTERNATIONAL OUTLOOK


The digital revolution goes global


The outlook for international equity markets is brighter than it’s been in a long time, thanks to improving European economic growth, the expansion of the digital revolution beyond U.S. shores and the restoration of dividends by companies throughout the world.


The graphic shows a world map of companies with rising dividends: Broadcom, UnitedHealth, J.P. Morgan and Comcast in the United States; TD Bank in Canada; Enel and Zurich Insurance in Europe; Power Grid of India; Tokyo Electron in Japan; and China Gas Holdings, Samsung and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing in Asia. Sources: Capital Group, Refinitiv Eikon. As of October 31, 2021.

Dividends stage a comeback of global proportions


A broad range of companies with a history of paying meaningful and growing dividends can be found in markets across the globe.


FIXED INCOME OUTLOOK


Maintain balance with bonds


With equity market volatility surfacing and many assets priced for perfection, fixed income has the potential to provide important diversification to investor portfolios.


In a challenging bond market, it’s all about selectivity


History shows that high-quality fixed income can often generate positive returns even as rates rise. That’s where selectivity comes in.


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Long-term perspective on markets and economies


RELATED INSIGHTS

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