2025 OUTLOOK
Economic outlook: Global growth dependent on a resilient U.S.
The world economy remains a mix of leaders and laggards. As inflation eases and central banks cut interest rates, the United States and India continue to drive global economic activity while Europe and China seek to kickstart growth. Here's what to watch for in the months and years to come.
Healthy U.S. economy remains a cornerstone of global growth
Sources: Capital Group. Country positions are forward-looking estimates by Capital Group economists as of December 2024 and include a mix of quantitative and qualitative characteristics (in USD). Long-term tailwinds and headwinds are based on structural factors such as debt, demographics and innovation. Near-term tailwinds and headwinds are based on cyclical factors such as labour, housing, spending, investment and financial stability. Circles represent individual economies. Circle sizes approximate the relative value of each economy and are used for illustrative purposes only.
Welcome to the Benjamin Button economy
U.S. public debt: Where is the breaking point?
Where to consider investing as interest rates fall
U.S. economy poised for a soft landing. What comes next
EQUITY OPPORTUNITIES
Stock market outlook: AI leads a broadening market
The grip Big Tech has had on market returns shows signs of loosening, due in part to the vast build-out required to deliver on AI’s promise. Market participation broadened beyond tech in 2024 as dividend payers, value stocks and non-U.S. companies generated strong gains. Find out why.
“Capital expenditure sprees are a feature, not a bug, of technological change.”
- Jared Franz, U.S. Economist
The Long View: 4 megatrends to watch
4 AI bottlenecks could bolster old-economy companies
3 reasons utilities could be the next growth sector
5 growth themes for the next five years
FIXED INCOME OPPORTUNITIES
Bond outlook: Income opportunities widen
The era of TINA, or “there is no alternative” to stocks, may be over. Income opportunities from bonds could be the best in decades, and investors now have more options. Get our fixed income team’s latest thinking.
Bond yields have surpassed the S&P 500 Index earnings yield
Sources: Bloomberg Index Services Ltd., FactSet, Standard & Poor’s alternatives. Earnings yield is equal to the forward expected earnings-per-share divided by the share price. Yield to worst is the lowest yield that can be realized by either calling or putting on one of the available call/put dates or holding a bond to maturity. As of November 30, 2024.
Did you miss the rally in stocks and bonds?
Building a mosaic of risks is key for credit portfolios
The Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate Bond Index represents the U.S. investment-grade fixed-rate bond market.
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