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Investment insights from Capital Group
US economy goes back to the future
Source: Capital Group. Positions within the business cycle are forward-looking estimates by Capital Group economists as of December 2023 (2024 bubble) and September 2024 (2025 bubble). The views of individual portfolio managers and analysts may differ.
Unemployment data signals rise of a mid-cycle economy
Source: Capital Group. The unemployment rate gap is the distance between the actual unemployment rate and the natural rate of unemployment. Business cycles are forward-looking estimates by Capital Group economists. The views of individual portfolio managers and analysts may differ. As of 31 July 2024.
A mid-cycle economy has provided favorable market returns
Sources: Capital Group, MSCI. Data is monthly from December 1973 to August 2024. Total index data is Datastream U.S. Total Market Index from 31 December 1973 through 31 December1994, and MSCI USA Index data thereafter. Sectors are Datastream sectors from 31 December 1973, through 31 December 1994, and GICS (MSCI) sectors thereafter. Business cycles are forward-looking estimates by Capital Group economists. The views of individual portfolio managers and analysts may differ. As of 31 July 2024.
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Past results are not a guarantee of future results. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up and you may lose some or all of your initial investment. This information is not intended to provide investment, tax or other advice, or to be a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. All information is as at the date indicated unless otherwise stated. Some information may have been obtained from third parties, and as such the reliability of that information is not guaranteed.
Capital Group manages equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed income investment professionals provide fixed income research and investment management across the Capital organization; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.