Investment insights from Capital Group
A resilient US economy has decelerated but has not stalled
Sources: Capital Group, Bureau of Economic Analysis, FactSet. Figures for Q1:20, Q2:20, and Q3:20 are negative 5.5%, negative 31.6%, and 31.0% respectively, and are cut off by the y-axis given the extreme fluctuations associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. Estimate for Q3:24 is based on the mean consensus estimate from FactSet. As of 22 August 2024.
US economic growth has accelerated after past soft landings
Sources: Capital Group, Bureau of Economic Analysis. Chart includes all periods identified as a soft landing since 1950. Soft landing defined as periods with less than 3% (pre-2006) or 2% (post-2006) average growth over a three-quarter period with no negative quarters. Data shown is a three-quarter moving average of the annual percent change in real gross domestic product (GDP). As of 26 August 2024.
Market expectations for Fed rate cuts may be too ambitious
Sources: Capital Group, Chicago Mercantile Exchange, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, National Bureau of Economic Research. Upper bound of target range is used since 2008. Actual data and market expectations as of 23 August 2024.
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Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an index, which is unmanaged. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up and you may lose some or all of your initial investment. This information is not intended to provide investment, tax or other advice, or to be a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. All information is as at the date indicated unless otherwise stated. Some information may have been obtained from third parties, and as such the reliability of that information is not guaranteed.
Capital Group manages equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed income investment professionals provide fixed income research and investment management across the Capital organization; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.