Given the riotous reception for weight-loss drugs using the GLP-1 hormone, it’s hard to believe that a pharmaceutical giant once passed over the key molecule in Wegovy, Ozempic and Zepbound. Yet that’s exactly what happened in the 1990s, when a researcher at vaunted drugmaker Eli Lilly discovered the promise of GLP-1.

The company reportedly wasn’t interested, partly because the drug must be injected, which it worried would be too high a hurdle for patients. The researcher responded by patenting the drug and founding his own company. Today’s blockbuster GLP-1 drugs were released after the patent expired, with Danish company Novo Nordisk launching Ozempic for diabetes patients in 2018 and weight-loss-focused Wegovy in 2021. Lilly began selling Zepbound last year.

Needless to say, weight-loss medications have proven wildly popular, with GLP-1 sales predicted to reach up to $100 billion annually. And though Lilly forfeited a head start, both it and Novo have benefited enormously.

“Everybody’s been told that, to lose weight, you should eat less and exercise more. It’s easy advice to hear, but it’s very difficult to follow,” Capital Group equity portfolio manager Mark Casey says. “But the success rate of people losing weight on GLP-1 drugs is astonishingly high, and they don’t feel like they’re suffering.”

In fact, the potential of weight-loss medications is so vast that they could shake up a whole swath of industries, from food makers to health care.

“It’s having ripple effects,” Casey adds. “How many knee replacements will be needed if the average person loses the weight their doctor asked them to shed? How many hip replacements?”

GLP-1 drugs could affect more than just users’ desire to eat.

GLP-1 drugs work on the digestive system and cause people to eat less, explains biotech and pharma analyst Laura Nelson Carney. (The acronym stands for glucagon-like peptide-1.) Additionally, human brains have receptors for the hormone that are related to food intake, feelings of satiety and the sense of pleasure we get from eating — which could affect other cravings and desires.

“This might explain why some people on these medications report they’ve become less interested in alcohol, cigarettes and other non-food vices,” Nelson Carney adds. Those benefits have not been demonstrated in large randomized clinical trials, but that hasn’t prevented discussions from swirling on social media and in academic circles.

Given the sky-high expectations for GLP-1 drugs and their potential for tamping behaviors, it’s natural to ask if they’ll have knock-on effects on other industries. If people aren’t eating as much, what does that mean for fast food? If people are less likely to hit the tables in Vegas, what does that mean for the gaming industry?

Capital Group equity portfolio manager Greg Wendt stresses that the impact thus far hasn’t reached the level of saturation that would visibly affect other industries, at least not yet. “A decline in overall calories in the general population would require an extremely high number of people on these drugs,” he explains.

But companies in potentially affected industries aren’t waiting to see how things shake out. For example, food maker Nestlé is developing new food products to address what it calls the “risk of malnutrition and the loss of lean muscle mass” associated with GLP-1 drugs.

Capital Group analyst Archana Basi, who covers food and beverage makers, says the ultimate impact on food processors will depend on how common GLP-1 usage becomes. If they’re widely adopted, she anticipates that manufacturers of high-sugar, high-fat snacks would be most affected. But that doesn’t mean they’d be forever impaired. As with any major disruption, these weight-loss drugs may offer companies opportunities to adapt.

“Food processing companies have created specialty formulations in the past,” she explains. “Gluten-free offerings, sugar-free offerings, plant-based offerings. A few years ago, meat and milk consumption began trending downward, but the food companies that introduced plant-based offerings weren’t left behind.”

The health care sector also could be shaken up if GLP-1 drugs live up to expectations, says Capital Group health care analyst Henry Wu. Whole industries exist to address diabetes and obesity, for example, and the drugs could slow or halt the progression of those diseases, limiting demand for products such as diabetes treatment devices. He adds that there is already a sense of what that could look like, thanks to decades-long studies of people who underwent weight-loss surgeries. Those patients generally had improvements in blood pressure, cholesterol levels and other conditions associated with obesity.

“It’s a good indicator of what we could expect from GLP-1s in a broader patient population, particularly as the next generation includes small molecule pill forms,” Wu adds.

Of course, disruptive new technologies can also boost existing industries. Basi points out that patients could gain confidence and become more interested in their overall health and appearance as they lose weight. Skin care, cosmetics and other personal care products could be boosted. She also thinks clothing companies could see a bump as people buy new wardrobes.

Wider GLP-1 adoption hinges on more than just efficacy.

It’s clear that these drugs can help patients lose weight, but whether they’ll have a meaningful, long-term effect hinges on several other factors. That goes beyond how efficacious the drugs are — for example, insurer coverage could impact usage while self-injection could prove to be a hurdle for some users.

Additionally, Nelson Carney expects that GLP-1 drug usage will likely evolve as they become more common, and that could affect their results. For example, many people will likely cycle on and off these drugs rather than remain on them continuously over many years. Moreover, the field may evolve to include stronger drugs for the initial induction period to maximize weight loss, followed by a maintenance phase of weaker or less frequent drugs.

Wendt adds that it’s difficult to anticipate the effect of new technologies with such disruptive potential.

“Very important breakthroughs can scramble a lot of expectations,” he says. “It will take some time to sort out the winners and losers.”