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Capital IdeasTM

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Election
US Election 2024: What investors need to know
Jared Franz
Economist
Clarke Camper
Global Head of Government & Regulatory Affairs
Reagan Anderson
Senior Vice President of Government & Regulatory Affairs
May 6, 2024
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With Biden and Trump set to square off in November, the 2024 US election cycle presents the possibility of a significant shift in political leadership — potentially leading to policy changes that could impact portfolios.


Investors should be prepared for policy shifts across a variety of sectors, with both candidates outlining a slate of goals that could boost — or hinder — certain industries, such as energy, financials and manufacturing. Other areas of focus include tax, leadership of the Federal Reserve, immigration policy and relations with China.


Rather than foretelling the future, this article examines possible outcomes to identify themes and potential risks. Either candidate’s ability to implement policy will be constrained if the opposing party controls Congress, and some issues, like the deficit, appear unlikely to change under either party.


As such, this paper primarily analyses what would be expected under a red wave or blue wave scenario, where either the Democrats or Republicans control the White House and both legislative chambers. 


2024 Election scenario analysis

2024 Election scenario analysis

Source: Capital Group. Note: These scenarios include hypothetical situations in which Congress is either majority Republican or split. Our goal is to offer possibilities, not specify a magnitude of change. Fed Funds = US federal funds rates. USD = US dollar valued against a basket of currencies.

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Jared Franz is an economist with 18 years of investment industry experience (as of 12/31/2023). He holds a PhD in economics from the University of Illinois at Chicago and a bachelor’s degree in mathematics from Northwestern University.

Clarke Camper is executive vice president and global head of government & regulatory affairs with 35 years of industry experience. He holds a juris doctor from Harvard Law School, a master’s degree in public policy from the Harvard Kennedy School, and a bachelor’s degree in public policy from Stanford University. 

Reagan Anderson is a senior vice president of government & regulatory affairs with 23 years of industry experience. She holds a bachelor's degree in journalism from Ohio University.

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