Capital IdeasTM
Investment insights from Capital Group
Federal Reserve
Tom Hollenberg
The US Federal Reserve (Fed) signalled that rate cuts are coming, although it remained noncommittal on when they may occur and left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at a range of 5.25% to 5.50% for the fifth consecutive meeting. Fed Chair Jerome Powell also addressed the central bank’s plans for quantitative tightening (QT), indicating that it would soon begin slowing (or tapering) the rate at which it is shrinking its balance sheet, but did not provide details on when the taper would begin.
Since June 2022, the Fed has been conducting a round of quantitative tightening — slowly reducing the size of its balance sheet by allowing securities to mature and not reinvesting the proceeds. Now, as inflation nears the Fed’s target, the central bank has signalled it will pare back its quantitative tightening, meaning the balance sheet will continue to decrease but at a slower pace.
How low can the Fed’s balance sheet go?
As at 11 March 2024. “Other” category includes federal agency debt, unamortised premiums on securities, unamortised discounts on securities, repo, float, central bank liquidity swaps, other fed assets, foreign exchange assets, gold, and special drawing rights (SDRs). Sources: Capital Group, US Federal Reserve
Based on recent statements from Fed governors, the most realistic scenario appears to be that the central bank will begin tapering the QT programme in June, assuming the Fed believes there will be sufficient liquidity in the market. Powell stated that slowing the pace of QT would not mean the Fed is changing the final target level of its balance sheet, although tapering means it would approach that target “more gradually.”
How this will affect markets remains to be seen, but slowing the balance sheet runoff should reduce the likelihood of an unintended liquidity crunch in US Treasury markets, and by extension, broader risk assets.
Our latest insights
-
-
Long-Term Investing
-
Emerging Markets
-
Global Equities
-
Emerging Markets
RELATED INSIGHTS
-
Equity
-
-
Interest Rates
Hear from our investment team.
Sign up now to get industry-leading insights and timely articles delivered to your inbox.
Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an index, which is unmanaged. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up and you may lose some or all of your initial investment. This information is not intended to provide investment, tax or other advice, or to be a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. All information is as at the date indicated unless otherwise stated. Some information may have been obtained from third parties, and as such the reliability of that information is not guaranteed.
Capital Group manages equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed income investment professionals provide fixed income research and investment management across the Capital organization; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.