Capital IdeasTM
Investment insights from Capital Group
Election
Talha Khan
Analysis suggests that while fiscal and monetary policy tend to ease moderately during election years, there has been little broader impact on underlying macroeconomic trends.
That said, countries with less robust institutions may experience a more pronounced and enduring effect – and that might prove key in a year of so many emerging market elections.
Over half the world’s population are voting in elections in 2024 – more than in any year in history. As well as parts of the developed world, this includes many core EM countries, including India, South Africa, Indonesia and Mexico, as well as several potentially heading toward or already in the midst of debt restructuring such as Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Pakistan and Ghana.
Over recent years, we have seen a shift globally, with an increase in industrial policy, democratic backsliding and populism. This, combined with several wars still ongoing, suggest the busy 2024 election cycle could have more of a lasting impact than has been the case in the past.
We examine the potential short and long-term influence, as well as outlining the polls to watch over the rest of the year.
Fiscal policy tends to ease during election years
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Source: Goldman Sachs. As at 30 January 2024. DM = developed markets. EM = emerging markets. Govt = Government.
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