Capital IdeasTM
Investment insights from Capital Group
Election
Talha Khan
Analysis suggests that while fiscal and monetary policy tend to ease moderately during election years, there has been little broader impact on underlying macroeconomic trends.
That said, countries with less robust institutions may experience a more pronounced and enduring effect – and that might prove key in a year of so many emerging market elections.
Over half the world’s population are voting in elections in 2024 – more than in any year in history. As well as parts of the developed world, this includes many core EM countries, including India, South Africa, Indonesia and Mexico, as well as several potentially heading toward or already in the midst of debt restructuring such as Sri Lanka, Ukraine, Pakistan and Ghana.
Over recent years, we have seen a shift globally, with an increase in industrial policy, democratic backsliding and populism. This, combined with several wars still ongoing, suggest the busy 2024 election cycle could have more of a lasting impact than has been the case in the past.
We examine the potential short and long-term influence, as well as outlining the polls to watch over the rest of the year.
Fiscal policy tends to ease during election years
.png "Fiscal policy tends to ease during election years")
Source: Goldman Sachs. As at 30 January 2024. DM = developed markets. EM = emerging markets. Govt = Government.
Our latest insights
-
-
Long-Term Investing
-
Emerging Markets
-
Global Equities
-
Emerging Markets
RELATED INSIGHTS
-
-
Emerging Markets
-
Automotive
Hear from our investment team.
Sign up now to get industry-leading insights and timely articles delivered to your inbox.
Past results are not predictive of results in future periods. It is not possible to invest directly in an index, which is unmanaged. The value of investments and income from them can go down as well as up and you may lose some or all of your initial investment. This information is not intended to provide investment, tax or other advice, or to be a solicitation to buy or sell any securities.
Statements attributed to an individual represent the opinions of that individual as of the date published and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of Capital Group or its affiliates. All information is as at the date indicated unless otherwise stated. Some information may have been obtained from third parties, and as such the reliability of that information is not guaranteed.
Capital Group manages equity assets through three investment groups. These groups make investment and proxy voting decisions independently. Fixed income investment professionals provide fixed income research and investment management across the Capital organization; however, for securities with equity characteristics, they act solely on behalf of one of the three equity investment groups.